Here's the list of the top 15 prospects according to Baseball America, probably the most reputable source for minor league scouting:
1. Jason Heyward, OF Braves
2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP Nationals
3. Mike Stanton, OF Marlins
4. Jesus Montero, C Yankees (Suck it Orioles fans)
5. Brian Matusz, LHP Orioles
6. Desmond Jennings, OF Rays
7. Buster Posey, C Giants
8. Pedro Alvarez, 3B Pirates
9. Neftali Feliz, RHP Rangers
10. Carlos Santana, C Indians
11. Dustin Ackley, 1B/2B/OF Mariners
12. Alcides Escobar, SS Brewers
13. Justin Smoak, 1B Rangers
14. Madison Bumgarner, LHP Giants
15. Domonic Brown, OF Phillies
An important thing to note about this list is it's focus. It's listing the best baseball player prospects, not fantasy player prospects. So guys like Alcides Escobar and Domonic Brown are huge for their organization, but their strengths are fielding, and aren't as relevant for fantasy issues.
Most of these guys will see time in the majors this year. Heyward, Matusz, Feliz, Santana and Escobar should all start the year on the teams with starting or platoon roles. Strasburg will be the talk of D.C. as to when he gets called up (the team has basically stated that he'll start the season in the minors) and for what reasons.
While Nationals manager Jim Riggleman has said that Strasburg needs to see time against minor league hitters before making the jump to facing guys like Ryan Howard and Hanley Ramirez on a weekly basis, their reasoning is almost assuredly more financial. If Strasburg stays in the minors until June, then he's not eligibile for salary arbitration, which for him means a likely enormous raise, for an extra year. For any other team I'd say it makes perfect sense, but I would think selling tickets is more important to the Nats considering how much they struggle to do so. Oh well.
Here are my rankings of these prospects for what they'll do for fantasy owners in 2010:
1. Jason Heyward
Heyward is a beast, and there's no two ways around it. Borderline Hall-of-Famer Chipper Jones already kind of let the cat out of the bag and said that they Braves planned on giving him a starting job on Opening Day, but that should surprise no one. Across three levels in the minors last year, Heyward hit .323. However, he got better as his competition did. Moving up to Double-A last year, he improved his average from .296 in 49 games for High-A to .352 in 47 games in Double-A. He also showed plate discipline, a good early indicator that a hitter will succeed in the majors, by walking 51 times and striking out 51. I can easily see him hitting around .300 this year, swatting 15 homers, swiping 10-12 bases, with about 80 runs and 70 RBI. Why does this make people drool, pick him entirely too high, and sport serious man-crushes for him? Well, he's 20 years old. He's my age, and he'll be doing that against professional major league ballplayers. Also, he's on my team, and I get him for three years, when he improves too.
2. Neftali Feliz
This guy is ridiculous. He throws 100 MPH with ease, it appears. His arm is like a whip, and he just befuddled hitters everywhere last year. In a late-season call-up, pitching from the bullpen, he had an ERA of 1.74 in 31 innings, striking out 39. At one point, he went 19 straight innings without giving up a run. He's legit. There's no denying him this year, the only question is where the Rangers decide to use him. He was electric from the bullpen, but a pitcher this good they want throwing 7 innings a game, not 2. However, for the first time in eons, the Rangers have lots of options in their starting rotation, so it looks like he'll be in the bullpen this year. However, throwing 60-70 innings from the bullpen means he could strike out 100 guys with a miniscule ERA and with about one walk+hit per inning pitched. Seriously absurd numbers, and I don't care when he pitches, I want him.
3. Stephen Strasburg
I don't care that he might not be called up by June. There has never been a more hyped pitcher. Ever. The last time any player in any sport was as hyped up as Strasburg was either Sidney Crosby or LeBron James. They worked out okay. Believe the hype. He throws over 100 MPH (he's been clocked at up to 103), but has devastating accuracy. At San Diego State last year, he pitched 109 innings, striking out 195 batters and walking only 19. In all my years of following baseball on any level, I've never heard numbers like that before. It's like a video game, and the video game is 21 years old and playing for the worst team in the majors. He'll pitch about 110, 120 innings this year, but I'd say expecting 150 strikeouts is reasonable, 8 or so wins with an ERA around 3.8 and a WHIP around 1.25. Look out world.
4. Wade Davis, RHP Rays
I realize this guys is absent from the list above, but he's only thrown 36 innings in the majors, so he's by definition a prospect, despite being ancient by prospect standards at 24. Davis is almost a sure thing to break camp as the Rays' 5th starter, and years of seasoning in the minor leagues probably means he has the lowest floor of any of these guys. He also has to lowest ceiling, as his fastball is in the low 90s and relies more on control and pitch variance than pure stuff. Fewer strikeouts, more groundballs, but a lower WHIP and more wins since the Rays are good. Safe, boring, not my type, but he'll be very useful for someone else.
5. Alcides Escobar
I know I said he was mostly on that list for defense, but that doesn't mean he's not going to make any contributions. He is the Brewers' starting shortstop, and he has a career average in the minors, and a brief stint in the majors, of above .300. Couple that with the 42 steals he amassed in 109 Triple-A games, and you have yourself a useful contributor at a position that's very short on those. I'd rank him a little below Elvis Andrus (who we'll talk about later when my other fantasy auction comes around) and Asdrubal Cabrera, but above other guys like Everth Cabrera and Orlando Cabrera. Green-light him in the late rounds.
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