Thursday, March 25, 2010

The Capitals are the undisputed regular season best, but are they Cup-bound?

I'll admit it- I'm a Pittsburgh Penguins fan and I hate the Capitals.

My hatred goes back to the pre-salary cap era where the Capitals would buy away the Penguins best players such as Jaromir Jagr. The first NHL game I ever attended was a Pens-Caps playoff game where everyone from the coaches to the players seemed to be involved in a fight at some point.

But I can only hate those whom I respect (I can only strongly dislike the dysfunctional New York Rangers), and Washington's 4-3 shootout win over the Penguins last night has only increased my belief that there is a legitimate chance it could be Alexander Ovechkin, and not Crosby finally hoisting the Stanley Cup in June.

Yes, the Penguins were missing superstar forward Evgeni Malkin and former Capital, top defenseman, and "power play quarterback" Sergei Gonchar. But the Penguins were given plenty of power play opportunities and were beating the Capitals for much of the game.

But these Capitals keep finding ways to win, to the tune an NHL-best 49-14-10 record. They've beat-up on a pretty bad Southeast Division, but here's a stat that should have Washington fans feeling good (and Penguins fans concerned) about their chances of making it to the Stanley Cup Finals:

The Capitals have a 3-0 record against the arch-rival Penguins this season, and have outscored Pittburgh 8-1 in the third period and overtime.

In a playoff format where grit, heart, and endurance are arguably almost as important as skill itself, the Capitals ability to wear out the Penguins and win late in games has to make them Washington the heavy favorites this year, even if they aren't the defending Champions.

It kills me to say this of course, but the Caps are simply an outstanding team right now.

We all know how good Ovechkin is. No. 8 is either the best or second best hockey player in the world. Crosby may be the better playmaker, but no one can will the puck into the net with the finesse or strength Ovechkin can.

But unlike past years, the Capitals have a legitimate team behind Ovechkin. Twenty-two year old Nicklas Backstrom (89 points in 73 games) has emerged as an stud center this season and winger Alexander Semin (72 points in 64 games) continues to score at an elite level.

The defense has been rock solid, and offensive-defensman Mike Green (71 points in 68 games) leads all NHL defenseman in scoring.

After losing his starting job in the playoffs to young Semyon Varlamov, Jose Theodore has been solid this season. With Theodore the starter but Varlamov still starting 16 games, both goalies have a .910 save percentage and are averaging less than three surrendered goals per game.

While the Capitals, sporting their best-ever squad, look to be the odds on favorite to win the East, their road won't be easy. Winning consistently in the regular season is one thing, but first place Eastern Conference teams haven't been able to reach the Stanley Cup finals as of late. Since the salary cap was imposed Ottawa, Buffalo, Montreal, and Boston (curiously all Northeast Division teams) have respectively finished the regular season with the No. 1 playoff seed.

None of those teams even reached the Stanley Cup finals.

So Capitals fans have a right to expect their team to finally win it all this year. But be forwarned Caps fans: History is against you.

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